Gold Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Bid Fades as Gold Market Awaits Iran Talks

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: February 24, 2026

Key Points

• Gold prices are retreating from a one-month high due to profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar.
• Safe-haven buying surged as U.S.–Iran tensions escalated, pushing prices from $4842.60 to $5250.00.
• Upcoming U.S.–Iran talks could lead to significant volatility in gold prices.

Market Overview

Spot gold is experiencing a decline after reaching its highest level in a month. The recent rally, which lasted four days, is now at risk as profit-taking occurs amidst growing uncertainty regarding President Trump's tariff plans and a strengthening dollar. The surge in gold prices began last Wednesday, coinciding with escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, leading to increased safe-haven buying.

Upcoming Negotiations

Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set to resume on Thursday, just days before a potential military action deadline. This situation is expected to create volatility in the gold market, as traders anticipate a binary outcome: either a deal is reached, or military action is initiated. The key issue in negotiations is the U.S. demand for Iran to abandon its nuclear program, which Iran is currently unwilling to do.

Impact of Tariffs

In addition to geopolitical tensions, traders are also monitoring President Trump's new tariffs on imports. Initially, this created a bullish sentiment among gold traders due to the uncertainty it introduced. However, as the situation calmed without significant global backlash, profit-taking began to weigh on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold is in an uptrend, supported by the daily swing chart and the 50-day moving average at $4743.04. A move below $4842.60 would indicate a shift in trend, while surpassing the intraday high of $5250.00 would signal a continuation of the uptrend. Key support levels are identified at $5143.89 to $5002.31 and $4744.34 to $4541.88.

Conclusion

The current gold rally appears to be steady, reminiscent of previous patterns before significant price increases. Investors are encouraged to consider "buy the dip" strategies, particularly if prices pull back into the identified support zones.