Summary of Hawkish FOMC Minutes vs Trump Pressure

Date: 19 February 2026

Overview

The global economy is currently active, with significant developments influencing market sentiment. This report focuses on the mixed employment figures from Australia, the upcoming jobless claims in the U.S., and the contrasting views between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration regarding monetary policy.

Australian Employment Data

Australia's January employment figures were released, showing a mixed but resilient performance. The employment change was lower than expected, but an upward revision to the previous month provided some offset. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, which is better than the anticipated rise to 4.2%. This positive outcome has strengthened the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) also gaining traction as a result.

U.S. Jobless Claims

Attention is now on the U.S. as initial jobless claims are expected to be around 223,000. Recent readings have fluctuated between 225K and 227K, indicating a stable labor market. Any significant deviation from these expectations could impact USD positioning and overall risk appetite in the markets.

FOMC Minutes and Monetary Policy

The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revealed a hawkish tone among Fed officials. Many members expressed the need for clear evidence of sustained lower inflation before considering rate cuts. Some officials even indicated a willingness to tighten monetary policy further if inflationary pressures continue. This stance is in stark contrast to the views of President Donald Trump, who is advocating for more aggressive easing, highlighting ongoing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve.

Market Reactions

Major stock indices are experiencing a mild correction after two strong trading sessions, although the overall bullish trend remains intact due to economic resilience and strength in select sectors. Currency markets are relatively subdued, with most major pairs trading within narrow ranges. The AUD and NZD are notable outperformers following the positive Australian jobs data.

Commodity Market Movements

Commodities are showing significant price movements:

• Crude Oil: Prices have surged approximately 7% in recent days, driven by heightened geopolitical concerns, particularly regarding tensions between Iran and the United States, which could threaten supply flows through critical chokepoints.
• Precious and Base Metals: Gold, silver, and copper are also attempting to push higher, supported by safe-haven demand and risk-off flows amid global uncertainties.

Conclusion

The current market landscape is shaped by mixed economic data, contrasting monetary policy perspectives, and significant movements in commodity prices. Traders should remain vigilant as these factors continue to evolve and influence market dynamics.