Natural Gas Price Forecast: Market Analysis
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: March 4, 2026
Overview
The article discusses the recent performance of natural gas prices, highlighting a failed breakout above the 20-day moving average and the implications for future price movements. The analysis indicates a bearish trend following a failed attempt to sustain an upward movement, suggesting potential downside risks for natural gas prices.
Key Points
- Failed Breakout: Natural gas prices initially broke out of a falling bull wedge pattern but could not maintain momentum, leading to a bearish reversal.
- Resistance Levels: The price action confirmed resistance at a near-term trend indicator, indicating that sellers remain in control of the market.
- Support Levels: A critical support level is identified around $2.76, which may be tested if the current downtrend continues.
- Long-Term Trends: The article notes a weakening long-term trend, with significant support levels failing, indicating a potential trend reversal.
- Upside Potential: For a bullish scenario to emerge, natural gas prices need to decisively break above the recent high of $3.19, reclaiming the 20-day moving average.
Technical Analysis
The daily chart of natural gas futures shows a failed breakout from a falling wedge pattern, with prices dropping below the 10-day average. The analysis suggests that if prices fall below $2.78, the next target could be the higher swing low at $2.62 from August, which may also fail under the prevailing downtrend.
Conclusion
The article concludes that the current market conditions for natural gas are bearish, with significant resistance levels confirmed and potential downside risks looming. Traders are advised to monitor key support levels and the possibility of a bullish reversal if prices can reclaim critical resistance levels.
About the Author
Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.