Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Iran Conflict Lifts WTI as LNG Disruptions Deepen

Published: August 31, 2026

Author: Arslan Ali

Key Points

• Renewed U.S.-Iran military escalation has increased risks to crude and refined-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Asian crude imports and Hormuz exports have sharply declined, while disruptions to middle-distillate trade are pressuring global fuel supply.
• QatarEnergy's extended LNG force majeure is constraining international gas supply, even as buyers seek alternative cargoes.

Market Overview

The ongoing military escalation between the U.S. and Iran has led to a bullish sentiment in oil markets, with increased risks to supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Recent U.S. military actions against Iranian missile sites have escalated tensions, impacting traffic through the historically significant Strait of Hormuz.

Despite government reports suggesting adequate supplies, Kpler estimates indicate a significant decline in Asian crude imports and exports through the Strait, highlighting the conflict's impact on global oil supply.

Natural Gas Situation

In contrast, the U.S. natural gas market appears stable, with the EIA projecting dry gas production of 111.2 Bcf/d in 2026 and LNG exports expected to reach 17.4 Bcf/d. However, QatarEnergy's force majeure on LNG contracts has created supply constraints in the international market.

European buyers are increasingly filling the void left by lost business with alternative suppliers, including the U.S.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas is currently trading around $2.85, having pulled back from a spike to $2.99. The price has fallen below the breakout zone of $2.87-$2.90, indicating a potential bearish trend. Immediate support is at $2.84, with resistance expected at $2.87-$2.90.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is trading at approximately $85.28, testing a critical resistance level at $85.73. The market shows a bullish outlook, with the RSI indicating strong momentum. A break above $85.73 could target $87.71, while support is at $83.26.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil has rebounded from a support level at $84.89 and is currently trading at $89.94. The market is showing bullish signs, with resistance at $91.90. Prices need to hold above $89.19 to maintain momentum.

Conclusion

The geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region are significantly impacting oil and gas markets, with supply risks increasing amid military escalations. While the U.S. natural gas market remains stable, international LNG supply is under pressure, highlighting the complex dynamics at play in the global energy landscape.