Market Review: February 19, 2026

Closing Recap

Market Overview

U.S. stocks experienced volatility, closing lower and ending a three-day winning streak. The market was influenced by macroeconomic concerns, particularly regarding Iran, upcoming inflation data, and the later stages of earnings season. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January is anticipated tomorrow, which is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. Additionally, option expiration is expected to increase trading volumes and volatility.

Crude oil prices reached their highest levels in about seven months due to escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran. Wal-Mart (WMT) reported better-than-expected Q4 results but provided a lower outlook, causing its shares to decline. The industrials sector reached a record high, while energy stocks also performed well. In contrast, the financial and technology sectors were the biggest decliners.

Interesting Statistics

• If February ends positively, the Dow could achieve ten consecutive monthly gains, a rare occurrence since 1900.
• The Technology sector ETF ($XLK) is nearing its 200-day moving average, maintaining a streak above it for 194 days.
• The equal-weighted S&P 500 ($RSP) has avoided overbought and oversold conditions for 157 days, indicating a stable market environment.

Sentiment Data

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported a slight decline in bullish sentiment, with the bull-bear spread at -2.4%. The NAAIM Exposure Index increased to 82.87, indicating a more optimistic outlook among active investment managers.

Economic Data

• Weekly jobless claims fell to 206,000, below expectations.
• The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in December, driven by increased imports and decreased exports.
• Pending home sales decreased slightly, and mortgage rates dropped to their lowest since September 2022.

Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries

Oil prices surged, with WTI crude rising to $66.43 per barrel. Precious metals showed little change, while cryptocurrencies faced continued outflows, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing significant withdrawals.

Sector News Breakdown

Retail & Consumer Staples

Wal-Mart's shares fell despite reporting strong Q4 results due to a cautious outlook. Other retailers like YETI and POOL also faced declines after disappointing guidance.

Energy & Industrials

OXY shares rose on better-than-expected earnings, while DE reported a significant revenue beat, raising its full-year income forecast.

Biotech & Pharma

CORT shares dropped after a court ruling favored Teva, while INSM and MDGL reported revenues in line with expectations, with positive guidance for the upcoming year.

Conclusion

The market remains influenced by a mix of corporate earnings, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators. Investors are closely watching upcoming data releases and sector performances as they navigate this complex environment.