Crude Oil Market Analysis: Weekend Attacks Erase Friday’s Selloff

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: September 14, 2026

Key Highlights

• Weekend attacks have reversed Friday's selloff in crude oil, with WTI and Brent prices rising by over 3%.
• Saudi Arabia's closed pipeline has left up to 4% of global oil supply without a viable route around the Strait of Hormuz.
• The cancellation of the Oman meeting has removed a bearish catalyst, restoring the crude oil supply-risk premium.

Market Overview

On Monday, October WTI crude oil futures were trading at $103.19, up 3.14%, while November Brent crude futures reached $107.89, also up 3.14%. The market opened significantly higher, recovering from Friday's losses.

Background

Last week, WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged by 8%, with a notable 6% increase occurring on Thursday. However, Friday's market saw a decline due to reports of a temporary shipping agreement with Iran, which traders interpreted as a reason to reduce risk premiums ahead of the weekend. This sentiment was quickly reversed when the Omani Foreign Minister announced that the meeting between Iran and Gulf countries was off, eliminating the basis for Friday's selloff.

Recent Attacks and Supply Concerns

Recent attacks by the Houthis on Saudi military installations and vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about the security of oil supply routes. The number of vessel transits through the Strait has significantly decreased, highlighting the impact of ongoing conflicts in the region.

Pipeline Damage

A drone strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has compounded supply issues, as this pipeline was a critical bypass for oil exports. With Saudi output already at emergency levels, the damage to this infrastructure poses a significant risk to global oil supply.

Diesel Prices and Inflation Concerns

U.S. diesel prices have crossed $6 per gallon, prompting concerns about inflation and potential responses from central banks. Commerzbank has raised its year-end diesel price forecast, indicating a broader impact on energy costs and inflationary pressures.

Technical Analysis

The current trading patterns suggest indecision among investors, with potential volatility ahead. For WTI, a trade above $104.46 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a drop below $98.48 could indicate a shift in momentum. Similarly, for Brent, a move above $109.97 would negate bearish signals, while a fall below $103.50 could lead to further downside.

Conclusion

The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions. The market is closely watching developments in the Strait of Hormuz and updates on Saudi pipeline repairs, as these factors will significantly influence price movements in the coming days.

What to Watch

Key factors to monitor include:

• Updates on the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Progress on Saudi pipeline repairs.
• Market reactions to diesel price trends and inflationary pressures.