The Week Ahead: Market Insights and Key Developments
Published on 23 February 2026 by Kathleen Brooks, Research Director UK
Key Takeaways
- Trump's latest move on tariffs triggers confusion, but no major selloff.
- Is the "Sell America" trade back?
- US indices trail global peers for February.
- Nvidia to remain top of the Mag 7 pack.
- What to watch: Trump’s State of the Union address.
Market Overview
US500 is at 6897.2, down 0.40%, while US100 is at 24938.25, down 0.55%. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.17935, up 0.02%. Gold prices have increased to 5151.96, up 1.08%, and oil is at 71.38, up 0.22%.
Tariff Confusion
Recent developments saw President Trump increase global tariffs from 10% to 15% following a Supreme Court ruling against his earlier trade levies. This has reignited the tariff narrative, creating uncertainty in financial markets as we approach Q1.
European stocks have remained relatively unchanged, indicating investor hesitation regarding the implications of these tariffs. The President's approach to circumvent the Supreme Court ruling by imposing tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act raises questions about the legality and future of these tariffs, especially with the need for Congressional approval looming before the November mid-terms.
Market Reactions
The market response has been mixed, with European stocks stable while US stock futures indicate potential declines. This suggests a possible resurgence of the "Sell America" trade, with European stocks outperforming their US counterparts recently.
The dollar has weakened significantly, contributing to speculation about a de-dollarization trend. Gold prices have surged, reflecting a flight to safety amidst the tariff uncertainty.
US Indices Performance
As February progresses, US indices are lagging behind European markets, with the Nasdaq showing particularly poor performance. The index is down for the year, echoing trends from previous years where it faced significant sell-offs.
In contrast, Japan's Nikkei has emerged as a top performer, benefiting from a pro-growth government and potential interest rate cuts. However, the latest tariff news could disrupt this positive momentum.
Upcoming Events
Looking ahead, key events include Nvidia's earnings report on February 25, which is anticipated to show strong results driven by AI demand. Additionally, President Trump's State of the Union address is expected to cover various topics, including trade policy and potential geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran.
Any indication of renewed US intervention in Iran could lead to spikes in oil prices, which are already hovering above $71 per barrel.