Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Key Insights
Published: July 08, 2025
Market Overview
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have recently slipped below $3,336, facing pressure from a stronger US Dollar and cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. The market is reacting to former President Donald Trump's proposed 10% tariffs on imports from BRICS-aligned nations, which could stoke inflation and complicate Federal Reserve policy.
Impact of Tariffs on Gold Prices
Trump's tariff proposal, set to be enforced by August 1, could lead to higher costs across various sectors, potentially increasing inflation expectations. This scenario may prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its anticipated interest rate cuts, thereby reducing demand for non-yielding assets like gold. The US Dollar Index has risen to its highest level in nearly two weeks, further pressuring dollar-denominated commodities.
Silver Market Dynamics
In contrast, silver (XAG/USD) has shown modest gains, trading around $36.85, up 0.06%. While it has benefited from safe-haven flows amid declining global equities, its upside remains limited due to uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decisions and a stronger dollar. The equity markets are under pressure from escalating trade risks and potential economic fallout.
FOMC Minutes and Market Sentiment
The upcoming FOMC minutes are highly anticipated, as traders seek clarity on whether the Fed will maintain its higher-for-longer stance or consider easing by year-end. In the absence of significant US data, gold is expected to remain range-bound. A hawkish tone from the Fed could push prices lower towards support near $3,313, while dovish hints might lead to a rebound above $3,345.
Technical Analysis of Gold and Silver
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook
Gold continues to consolidate near $3,336, following a rebound off support at $3,327. The price is hovering between the 50-EMA ($3,328) and 200-EMA ($3,331), indicating indecision ahead of key macro events. A sustained push above $3,345 could clear the path toward resistance at $3,363 and $3,378. Conversely, failure to hold $3,327 may expose downside targets at $3,313 and $3,295.
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook
Silver is edging higher above $36.85, with bulls attempting to reclaim the $37.06 resistance zone. The price remains supported by the 50-EMA ($36.71) and the 200-EMA ($36.48), reinforcing short-term upward momentum. A clean break above $37.06 could expose $37.32 and potentially $37.58 as next upside targets. Initial support rests at $36.73, followed by a key confluence zone around $36.48.
Conclusion
Overall, while geopolitical instability and tariff-driven inflation risks provide some support for gold, the metal remains vulnerable to further dollar strength. Traders are advised to monitor the FOMC minutes closely, as they will likely dictate the next moves in precious metals.