Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising Tensions Keep Oil Firm at $64

Published: February 10, 2026

Key Points

• WTI crude trades near $64.3 as geopolitical tensions lift risk premiums and keep global oil supply concerns firmly in focus.
• Natural gas pulls back to the $3.05–$3.15 demand zone after a sharp rally, with buyers stepping in on price weakness.
• Brent crude holds above $69 as rising trend support and steady RSI signal room for further upside toward $70.50.

Market Overview

The oil and natural gas markets are currently reacting to increasing geopolitical tensions, which are creating uncertainty in the global energy outlook. WTI crude futures are stable around $64.3 per barrel, as supply risks are heightened due to security warnings in critical shipping routes. Although there have been some diplomatic advancements, skepticism about their longevity is keeping risk premiums elevated. Traders are closely monitoring shifts in global crude flows, particularly if major Asian buyers reduce their purchases.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $3.09, entering a demand zone between $3.05 and $3.15. Recent candlestick patterns indicate that buyers are entering the market rather than sellers exiting. The price has seen a significant rally from below $1.50 and is currently undergoing a correction. It is just under the 50-period moving average, while the 100-period average, around $2.35, is still on the rise, suggesting a positive medium-term outlook.

Fibonacci analysis shows that the pullback is holding near the 50% retracement level of the move from $1.47 to $4.41. The RSI is at 45, indicating slowing momentum but not yet oversold. Key resistance is at $3.64, with solid support at $3.05 and $2.35.

Trade Idea: Consider buying near $3.05, setting a stop below $2.90, and targeting $3.64.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading around $64.30, consolidating above a rising trendline after failing to break past $66.45. The recent candlestick patterns show indecision in the market. The price remains above a rising trendline from January lows, maintaining a positive short-term outlook. The 50-period moving average near $63.90 offers immediate support, while the 100-period average around $61.20 aligns with the lower channel edge. Fibonacci analysis indicates that the pullback is above the 38.2% retracement of the $58 to $66 rally, suggesting continued buying on dips. The RSI is near 50, indicating neutral momentum.

Trade Idea: Consider buying near $63.80, setting a stop below $62.50, and targeting $65.50.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading around $69.05, showing strength after rising from $65.40. Recent candlestick patterns indicate steady buying, with the price following a rising trendline from late January. The 50-period moving average near $68.10 provides short-term support, while the 100-period average around $65.40 supports the overall uptrend. Fibonacci analysis shows the price is above the 50% retracement of the $63.20 to $70.50 move. The RSI is just above 50, indicating steady momentum without signs of being overbought.

Trade Idea: Consider buying near $68.20, setting a stop below $66.80, and targeting $70.50.

About the Author

Arslan Ali is a finance MBA and holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to provide valuable insights into market sentiment and the likelihood of instruments being overbought or oversold.