Overview
The recent rally in Bitcoin, which saw its price rise above $77,000, is now facing significant selling pressure. This surge was largely driven by substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $2.1 billion over eight consecutive sessions, resulting in a 12% increase from April lows. However, the current price zone raises concerns as historical on-chain data indicates that short-term holders typically take profits at this level.
The Eight-Day Streak That Changed the Tape
On April 23, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $223 million, marking the longest inflow streak since October 2025, which previously propelled Bitcoin to its all-time high of $126,000. Cumulative net inflows since the launch of these ETFs have surpassed $58 billion, with total assets around $102 billion, representing about 6.5% of Bitcoin's market capitalization. Notably, BlackRock's IBIT has been the primary driver of this demand, accounting for nearly 75% of the recent inflows.
Why $78,100 is the Level Traders are Watching
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin has reclaimed its True Market Mean at $78,100, a critical level that historically separates profit-taking from loss-holding among short-term holders. A secondary on-chain cluster is identified near $80,100, which analysts believe could cap the current rally. The next few percentage points are crucial as they will determine whether those who bought above $80,000 will return to breakeven and potentially sell.
The Ethereum Divergence
While Bitcoin ETFs have seen continued inflows, Ethereum ETFs experienced a $75.9 million outflow, breaking a 10-day inflow streak. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to approximately 60%, indicating a shift of capital specifically into Bitcoin rather than the broader cryptocurrency market.
Options Expiry and the Macro Overlay
On April 24, nearly $10 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, which typically compresses volatility leading up to the event. The macroeconomic backdrop remains uncertain, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Bitcoin's strength in this context is notable, as it diverges from traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar, suggesting either a maturation of institutional interest or a potential insensitivity to macroeconomic risks.
What Traders are Watching Next
The immediate focus is whether Bitcoin can decisively close above $80,100. A successful break would indicate that short-term holders have been absorbed, while a rejection could suggest that the ETF-driven demand is insufficient to overcome selling pressure. Additionally, the continuation of ETF inflows will be closely monitored as traders look for signs of either continuation or exhaustion in the current rally.