US Economic Data Summary - September 2026

Overview

Recent US economic data has shown stronger-than-expected growth and consumption, while core PCE inflation figures came in below forecasts. This has led to a weakening of the US dollar and a positive reaction in US equity indices.

Key Economic Indicators

PCE Inflation

• Headline PCE inflation rose by 3.4% year-over-year (y/y), below the forecast of 3.7%.
• Month-over-month (m/m), headline PCE inflation increased by 0.3%, matching expectations.
• Core PCE inflation rose by 3.01% y/y, also below the forecast of 3.3%.
• Core PCE inflation increased by 0.2% m/m, compared to the forecast of 0.3%.
• The final core PCE price measure was 3.3%, below the expected 3.6%.
• The final PCE price measure was 5.0%, down from 5.3% previously.

ADP Employment

ADP employment figures showed an increase of 90,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 74,500 and significantly higher than the previous reading of 38,000.

GDP Growth

• Final US GDP growth was reported at 2.2% quarter-over-quarter (q/q), exceeding the forecast of 1.5%.
• The final GDP deflator was recorded at 6.1%, down from 6.4% previously.

Income and Spending

• Personal income increased by 0.2% m/m, below the forecast of 0.5%.
• Consumer spending rose by 0.9% m/m, in line with expectations.
• Real personal consumption increased by 0.6% m/m, above the forecast of 0.5%.
• Preliminary wholesale inventories rose by 0.7% m/m, exceeding the expected 0.5%.

Analysis

The data indicates that real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, rose by 0.6% in August, marking the strongest monthly increase since March 2025. This increase in spending is attributed to consumer demand for goods such as motor vehicles, home furnishings, and clothing, despite rising gasoline prices and overall inflationary pressures.

The economy appears to be expanding, which complicates the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The Fed is closely monitoring spending and inflation data following its recent interest rate hike in September, the first in three years.

Looking ahead, attention will shift to the upcoming September jobs report and further inflation data, which will provide a clearer picture of the economic landscape before the Fed's policy decision on October 28.