Bitcoin Market Analysis - February 6, 2026

Summary of Bitcoin's Recent Performance

Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, losing nearly 52% of its value since its peak of approximately $126,000 on October 6, 2025. The current price is around $60,000, marking the lowest level since October 10, 2024. Year-to-date, Bitcoin is down about 26% and is trading slightly above $64,000.

Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Decline

• Risk-Off Sentiment: There is a prevailing risk-off sentiment towards high-risk assets, particularly affecting equities and cryptocurrencies. A notable sell-off in technology stocks, especially in the AI software sector, has correlated with Bitcoin's decline.
• ETF Outflows: Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen continued outflows for five consecutive weeks, with total assets under management dropping from a record high of $169.4 billion in October to below $98 billion, the lowest since April 2025.
• Investment Product Outflows: There are ongoing significant outflows from cryptocurrency investment products, further pressuring Bitcoin prices.
• US Dollar Strength: The US dollar index has rebounded to near 98, its highest since January 23, 2026, which is exerting additional pressure on dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
• Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The appointment of Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy, has created uncertainty regarding US interest rates and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, adding further pressure on high-risk assets.

Technical Analysis Indicators

From a technical perspective, several indicators suggest a sustained bearish momentum for Bitcoin:

• Death Cross: A bearish "death cross" occurred between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages on February 1, 2026, reinforcing the downtrend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 20, indicating strong bearish momentum and is at its lowest level since August 19, 2023.
• Directional Movement Indicators: The positive directional movement indicator (DMI+) is near 6, while the negative directional movement indicator (DMI-) is at 42, indicating strong selling pressure.
• Average Directional Index (ADX): The ADX is around 42, suggesting a strong downward trend.
• MACD Crossover: A bearish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line within negative territory confirms the persistence of negative momentum.