Market Summary - February 18, 2026

On February 18, 2026, Wall Street and oil prices experienced gains, while the EUR/USD currency pair saw a decline of 0.5%. The US100 index rose by more than 1%, indicating a recovery in US indices following a sell-off earlier in the week. Positive economic data from the US, including building permits, industrial production, and durable goods orders, exceeded expectations, bolstering the strength of the US dollar.

Retail Investor Activity

According to Citadel Securities, retail investors have been actively purchasing software stocks at unprecedented levels on their trading platform, with net notional values reaching record highs. The firm noted that the scale and persistence of this buying activity have significantly surpassed previous peaks, marking retail investors as a crucial source of demand in early 2026. The average daily dollar demand for US equities from January 2 to February 13 was approximately 25% higher than the previous record set in 2021 and about double the average from 2020 to 2025.

This momentum has also extended into options trading, with retail participation in 2026 already at historically high levels. The average daily options volume year-to-date is nearly 50% above the 2020-2025 average and over 15% higher than the previous year. Retail options investors have been net buyers in 41 of the last 42 weeks, indicating a sustained appetite for risk rather than sporadic trading behavior.

Market Reactions to Economic Data

Despite a stronger US dollar index and a decline in the EUR/USD pair, precious metals saw an increase in value. Gold prices rose nearly 2.5%, approaching the significant psychological level of $5,000 per ounce, while silver prices surged by as much as 5%. This uptick in precious metals may also reflect increased retail investor activity.

US Economic Data Highlights

• Industrial production (m/m): 0.7% (Expected: 0.4%; Previous: 0.4%; Revised: 0.2%)
• Industrial production (y/y): 2.3% (Previous: 1.99%)
• Manufacturing output (m/m): 0.6% (Expected: 0.4%; Previous: 0.2%)
• Capacity utilization: 76.2% (Expected: 76.6%; Previous: 77.3%; Revised: 75.7%)
• Durable goods orders (m/m): -1.4% (Expected: -1.8%; Previous: 5.4%)
• Core durable goods (m/m): 0.9% (Expected: 0.3%; Previous: 0.4%)
• Durable goods ex-defense (m/m): -2.5% (Previous: 6.6%)
• Durable goods ex-transportation (m/m): 0.9% (Expected: 0.3%; Previous: 0.4%)
• Building permits: 1.448 million (Expected: 1.400 million; Previous: 1.411 million)
• Housing starts: 1.404 million (Expected: 1.310 million; Previous: 1.272 million)

Cocoa Market Update

Cocoa prices have sharply declined, falling over 6% and down more than 45% year-to-date. Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer, recently reduced its farmgate prices by nearly 30%. Meanwhile, Ivory Coast, the largest producer, has decided to maintain its farmgate prices through the end of the current main season, although there are indications it may consider a price cut.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices

Markets are increasingly concerned about the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, particularly following the US's deployment of additional military equipment to the region. As a result, oil prices have risen by more than 3.5% amid these geopolitical tensions.