USDCAD Technical Analysis Summary

In a recent analysis by Greg Michalowski, the USDCAD currency pair is showing bullish momentum as it tests the February high of 1.37241. The analysis highlights that buyers are currently in control, particularly as the pair trades above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range, which is positioned at 1.37045.

Current Market Dynamics

During early North American trading, USDCAD has been pushing higher, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. A sustained break above the February high at 1.37241 is crucial, as it would reinforce the bullish bias and potentially lead to further gains towards the late-January high of 1.37383, and the 61.8% retracement level of the 2026 range at 1.37572.

Recent Price Movements

Prior to the current upward movement, the pair experienced a dip due to tariff-related headlines over the weekend. However, as traders reassessed the implications of renewed U.S. trade pressures, particularly towards Canada, the selling pressure diminished. Additionally, weaker equity markets contributed to a cautious risk tone, which negatively impacted commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar, thereby supporting the USDCAD's recovery towards the 50% retracement level.

Key Technical Levels

The 1.37045 level is now identified as a significant bias-defining area. Maintaining a position above this level keeps buyers in control and supports the bullish outlook. Conversely, if the price falls back below 1.37045, it could weaken the bullish case and potentially stall any short-term upward momentum.

Outlook

A decisive break above the February high at 1.37241 is anticipated to invite further upside acceleration, while a retreat below the 1.37045 level could signal a shift in momentum. Traders are advised to monitor these key levels closely as they navigate the current market conditions.