Commodities Market Update: Natural Gas and Oil Forecasts
Published: March 5, 2026
Author: Vladimir Zernov
Key Highlights
- Natural gas prices increased as working gas in storage declined by 132 Bcf.
- WTI oil surpassed the $80.00 mark amid ongoing Middle East conflict.
- Brent oil approached $85.00 as traders anticipate prolonged disruptions.
Natural Gas Market Analysis
Natural gas prices have rebounded as traders react to the latest EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, which revealed a larger-than-expected draw of 132 Bcf, compared to the forecast of 121 Bcf. This unexpected decline in storage levels has provided upward momentum for natural gas prices.
Currently, natural gas stocks are 115 Bcf higher than last year but 43 Bcf below the five-year average. The nearest resistance for natural gas is between $3.00 and $3.05, with potential to rise to $3.25 to $3.30 if it breaks through this level. The RSI indicates room for further gains in the near term.
WTI Oil Market Analysis
WTI oil has gained significant momentum, trading above the $80.00 level as tensions in the Middle East escalate. Iran's recent military actions against oil-producing nations, including missile strikes on the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, have raised concerns about supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, remains effectively closed, further supporting oil prices.
Traders are pricing in the likelihood of a prolonged conflict, which could lead to production halts in the region. WTI oil has broken through the resistance at $77.50-$78.00 and is aiming for the next resistance level at $84.00-$84.50.
Brent Oil Market Analysis
Brent oil is also experiencing upward pressure as traders speculate on the potential for significant market disruptions due to the ongoing conflict. Currently, Brent is testing resistance levels around $83.50-$84.00, with a sustained position above $84.00 likely to push prices towards $87.50-$88.00.
Despite the bullish sentiment, the RSI indicates that Brent oil is in overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback could occur. However, geopolitical developments are expected to dominate market sentiment in the near term.