Oil Price Forecast: WTI and Brent Ease as Russian Diesel Hopes Grow

Author: Muhammad Umair

Published on: October 13, 2026

Overview

Oil prices have shown a downward trend in early Asian trading, with Brent oil slipping to $107.80 per barrel and WTI oil dropping near $93. This decline is attributed to the potential increase in Russian diesel exports, which could alleviate fuel shortages and exert downward pressure on oil prices.

Key Insights

• Russian diesel exports are projected to reach between 3 million to 3.5 million metric tons per month by year-end, as stated by Russia's Deputy Prime Minister.
• The market remains cautious, needing confirmation of Russia's ability to deliver this additional supply.
• OPEC and its allies have raised concerns about shipping costs, which now account for over one-third of energy cargo values, complicating crude oil and fuel movement.
• Recent tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have heightened shipping risks, which could counterbalance the potential relief from increased diesel supply.

WTI Oil Forecast

The WTI oil market shows a constructive outlook, with the potential to test $104 if it maintains levels above $87. A confirmed break above $106.75 could lead to a rally towards $130, while a drop below $80 may indicate further declines towards $70.

Brent Oil Forecast

Brent crude oil is also positioned for potential gains, with a short-term target of $113. A break above this level could push prices towards $120. The market's positive momentum is supported by recent bullish patterns and the RSI remaining above the midline.

Market Considerations

The market will closely monitor the delivery of Russian diesel and the safety of shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. While additional fuel supply could ease shortages, ongoing disruptions could keep oil prices elevated. The outlook suggests that WTI could test $104 if it stays above $87, while Brent could rise towards $113, with a break above this level opening the path to $120.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics indicate a complex interplay between potential supply increases from Russia and geopolitical risks affecting shipping routes. Traders should remain vigilant as these factors will significantly influence oil price movements in the near term.