Intel Preview: Is There Still Room for Gains?
Date: 22 April 2026
Current Valuation and Stock Performance
Intel Corporation (Ticker: INTC.US) is currently experiencing a significant surge in its stock price, which has reached its highest valuation since the Dot-Com bubble. The stock is trading at approximately $65.66, just a few dollars shy of its all-time high. Since hitting a low in 2024, Intel's stock has skyrocketed over 250%, with a remarkable 70% increase occurring in just the last three weeks.
Hyperbolic Rally
The recent rally in Intel's stock can be characterized as hyperbolic, with gains exceeding 70% in less than a month, despite no significant changes in the company's business model or the overall market environment. The stock's momentum appears to have stalled around the psychological resistance level of $70, a price point previously reached only during the dot-com bubble and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Market Expectations vs. Stock Behavior
Market expectations for Intel's Q1 2026 results are relatively conservative, with projected figures indicating a year-over-year decline:
- Revenue: Above $13.3 billion
- EBITDA: Approximately $3.25 billion
- EBIT: Around $420 million
- Adjusted EPS: Approximately $0
This raises the question of what is driving the current market sentiment and the outsized gains in Intel's stock price.
Key Areas of Investor Interest
Investors are particularly focused on two key areas: the Data Center/AI segment and the Intel Foundry initiative. Although the Data Center and AI segments contribute only about 30% of Intel's total revenue, they are responsible for generating most of the company's net income. In contrast, the traditional segments, such as servers and PCs, are currently yielding low margins of around 2%.
The Intel Foundry initiative, aimed at providing chip packaging services, is still in a loss-making phase. Despite generating over $4 billion in revenue, it is operating at a loss exceeding $2 billion, with no immediate prospects for improvement in the next 4 to 6 quarters.
Justifying the Rally
For the recent rally in Intel's stock to be justified, several conditions would need to be met:
- Higher margins in the Data Center/AI segment
- Raised guidance for future earnings
- Announcement of a significant new contract that has not yet been disclosed
Without these developments, it remains challenging to justify the current valuations of a company facing numerous challenges and operating with minimal profitability relative to its scale.