An Upbeat End to a Chaotic Month – North American Session Market Wrap for March 31, 2026

Market Overview

The North American session on March 31 concluded on a positive note, with investors expressing relief and optimism as the month came to an end. Following a tumultuous period, the market experienced a significant upswing, largely influenced by geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Developments

President Trump indicated a reduced commitment to defending the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that European and Gulf nations would take on this responsibility. This strategic shift is crucial for oil tanker routes, which are vital for global oil supply.

Iran's President Pezeshkian confirmed ongoing negotiations, with demands for guarantees to foster a sustainable peace process. Despite a low probability (25%) for a ceasefire by April 15, the mere prospect of de-escalation has positively impacted market sentiment.

Market Reactions

Global assets surged, with silver prices rising by 7% and gold by 3%. Stock indexes worldwide also saw significant gains, while Brent crude oil prices fell by 3%. The market's reaction was likely amplified by month-end position closures, making the following days critical for confirming this upward trend.

Traders are advised to monitor the situation closely, as a rejection of today's highs could signal renewed uncertainty and potential market downturns. Additionally, the presence of a heavy US Marine fleet in the region could lead to further military operations if tensions escalate.

Asset Performance

Today's market performance was characterized by a broad rally across various asset classes, with the exception of crude oil and the US dollar. The correlation between assets has been a useful tool for traders navigating the recent volatility.

European and risk-sensitive currencies benefited from the risk-on sentiment, with the Euro showing significant gains. Traders should keep an eye on the EUR/USD pair for potential continuation of this trend.

Looking Ahead

As the market transitions into April, key economic data releases are anticipated, particularly from the US, including Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs. Geopolitical developments will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics.

Traders are encouraged to remain vigilant regarding sentiment shifts and news from the Middle East, as these factors will likely influence market movements in the coming days.