US Dollar Forecast: DXY Slides Ahead of Jobs Data
Published: February 09, 2026
Key Points
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is under pressure, trading near 97.60 as traders await US jobs data.
- The January jobs report is expected to show an addition of approximately 70,000 jobs.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has risen to a six-month high of 57.3, indicating stronger consumer confidence.
Market Overview
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its downward trend, currently at 97.60, reflecting a modest loss of 0.13%. This bearish sentiment is attributed to traders' cautiousness ahead of significant US economic data and Federal Reserve signals.
US Jobs and Consumer Confidence Data
Market participants are closely monitoring delayed US economic data due to a recent partial government shutdown. The upcoming January jobs report is anticipated to show stability in the labor market, with an expected addition of 70,000 jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. Meanwhile, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has increased to 57.3, surpassing expectations and indicating a more confident consumer base.
Federal Reserve's Stance
The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rates in March, citing a stable but slowly growing economy. Concerns about high inflation suggest that rate cuts are not imminent, which could provide some support for the US dollar. However, uncertainty regarding future rate changes continues to pressure the dollar.
Technical Analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY is trading around 97.38, having moved below its rising channel. Recent candlestick patterns indicate steady selling pressure. The index faces resistance near 97.95 to 98.00, while a drop below 97.20 could lead to further declines towards 96.83 and 96.34. The RSI indicates fading momentum, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend unless buyers can push the price back above 97.60.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is currently near 1.3590, attempting to stabilize after a drop from 1.3850. The price is testing key Fibonacci support around 1.3580. If it holds above 1.3535, there is potential for recovery towards 1.3690 and 1.3760.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1850, showing signs of buyer interest after a pullback from 1.2050. The price remains above a rising trendline and key support at 1.1770. As long as this support holds, the outlook remains positive, with potential resistance at 1.1895 and 1.1985.
Trade Ideas
- Consider selling DXY below 97.20, targeting 96.40 with a stop above 97.85.
- Consider buying GBP/USD near 1.3560, targeting 1.3720 with a stop below 1.3500.
- Consider buying EUR/USD near 1.1820, targeting 1.1980 with a stop below 1.1760.
Conclusion
The US dollar remains under pressure as traders await critical economic data. The upcoming jobs report and consumer sentiment indicators will be pivotal in determining the dollar's direction. Technical analysis suggests potential trading opportunities in GBP/USD and EUR/USD, contingent on key support and resistance levels.