Technical Analysis of USDJPY
Date: July 14, 2025
Author: Greg Michalowski
Overview
The USDJPY currency pair is experiencing upward momentum, reaching new highs as it reacts to recent trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend, supported by key levels that have held firm during recent price movements.
Current Market Conditions
Recent tariffs include a broad 25% tariff on all imports from Japan, effective August 1, 2025, along with specific tariffs on automobiles and auto parts, and steel and aluminum imports. Despite these tensions, the USDJPY has shown resilience and strength in its upward movement.
Technical Analysis
The USDJPY has been building momentum over the past few weeks, breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the 2025 high to the 2025 low, which is positioned at 147.135. This breakout is a significant bullish signal.
USDJPY 4-hour chart showing key support levels and moving averages.
Key Support Levels
On the hourly chart, the price has found support at the aforementioned retracement level, indicating that buyers are actively defending this area. Additionally, the price has consistently held above the rising 100-hour moving average, which has acted as a solid support during recent dips. This behavior reinforces the bullish sentiment in the market.
Conclusion
As long as the USDJPY remains above critical technical levels such as the moving averages and retracement levels, the bullish bias is expected to continue. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as they serve as decision points for potential re-entries into the market during corrective pullbacks.