Summary of Novo Nordisk Earnings Case Study

Author: Koen Hoorelbeke, Investment and Options Strategist

Date: August 3, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the upcoming earnings report for Novo Nordisk, scheduled for August 5, 2026. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the expected price movement as indicated by the options market, rather than attempting to predict the earnings outcome itself. The analysis focuses on the implications of the options pricing and historical performance of the stock around earnings announcements.

Key Points

• Expected Move: The options market is pricing an approximate 8% move in the stock, with a straddle price of around $3.85, suggesting a potential trading range of $44.90 to $52.60.
• Historical Performance: Novo Nordisk has a history of negative price reactions following Q2 earnings, with past declines of -6.7% and -5.4% in the last two years.
• Market Context: The stock has risen about 8.7% since the last earnings report, and a guidance upgrade is expected, which may already be priced into the stock.

Trading Strategies

The article outlines three potential trading strategies based on different market views:

1. Bullish View: Bull Put Spread

This strategy involves selling a put spread below the current market price, allowing the trader to collect premium while limiting potential losses. The example provided suggests selling a $45 put and buying a $43 put, with a maximum profit of approximately $29 if the stock holds above $45.

2. Neutral View: Short Iron Condor

This strategy involves selling both a put spread below and a call spread above the market price, profiting if the stock remains within a defined range. The example suggests selling a $44 put and a $52 call, with maximum profit achievable if the stock closes between $44 and $52.

3. Bearish View: Bear Call Spread

This strategy involves selling a call spread above the market price, profiting if the stock stays below the short strike. The example suggests selling a $52 call and buying a $54 call, with a maximum profit of approximately $37 if the stock remains below $52.

Conclusion

The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the expected move and the implications of implied volatility when trading earnings. Each strategy discussed is designed to manage risk while taking advantage of the anticipated volatility crush that typically follows earnings announcements.

Overall, the piece serves as an educational resource for traders looking to navigate the complexities of earnings reports using options strategies.