Market Analysis Summary: US Threatens Unprecedented Iran Sanctions; Markets on Edge

Author: Martin Lam

Date: August 24, 2026

Key Takeaways

• U.S. equities, gold, and crude oil experienced gains on Friday.
• Warnings from Bessent indicate that Washington may impose the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran, with potential announcements expected on Monday.
• Market sentiment is anticipated to remain cautious at the start of the week.

Global Market Review

The U.S. services sector reported its strongest growth in nearly two years, which helped offset weaknesses in manufacturing. Major indices closed higher on Friday but showed declines over the week: S&P 500 fell by 1.43%, Nasdaq by 2.05%, and Dow by 0.85%. Treasury yields rose, and the dollar index also increased. Gold prices climbed to a three-month high, marking a third consecutive weekly gain, while oil prices rose following threats of sanctions on Iran's trade partners, leading to expectations of tighter supply.

Key Economic Events

Several significant economic events are scheduled for the week, including:

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)
• RBA Meeting Minutes
• Germany GDP QoQ Final (Q2)
• Germany Ifo Business Climate (August)
• US Building Permits Final (July)
• US CB Consumer Confidence (August)
• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1737 / 1.1771
Support: 1.1657 / 1.1623

EUR/USD traded near 1.1680 after three consecutive gains, indicating a pause in momentum. Key resistance remains at 1.1711.

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.3701 / 1.3734
Support: 1.3626 / 1.3591

Despite disappointing retail sales, GBP/USD maintained above 1.3600, showing bullish momentum.

USD/JPY

Resistance: 159.05 / 159.42
Support: 158.23 / 157.87

USD/JPY reached 159 but could not maintain above this level, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

US Crude Oil Futures

Resistance: 86.66 / 87.16
Support: 84.56 / 84.07

Oil prices hovered above $86, with market participants awaiting news on sanctions for volatility.

Spot Gold

Resistance: 4658 / 4675
Support: 4589 / 4568

Gold prices surged above $4,600, driven by Treasury buybacks and cautious sentiment regarding U.S.-Iran tensions.

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 53,531 / 53,996
Support: 52,779 / 52,402

U.S. equities rebounded, but further momentum is needed to strengthen the upward trend.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,489 / 29,634
Support: 29,203 / 29,021

NASDAQ showed modest gains but remains under pressure, needing to break above 29,500.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 80,332 / 82,759
Support: 74,990 / 72,643

Bitcoin reached $78,000, showing strong performance driven by a weaker dollar and ETF inflows.

Conclusion

Market participants are advised to remain vigilant as geopolitical tensions and economic indicators could significantly impact market movements in the coming days.