Silver Price Forecast Summary

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: February 19, 2026

Key Points

• Silver prices are currently stalling below the 50-day moving average (MA) as safe-haven demand diminishes.
• Hawkish Federal Reserve minutes are limiting upside potential for silver.
• Potential downside risks are heightened due to upcoming PCE data and a stronger U.S. Dollar.
• Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, may quickly dissipate, impacting silver prices.

Current Market Analysis

As of late Thursday, silver (XAG/USD) is showing slight gains but remains over a dollar off its session high, indicating selling pressure. Initial gains were driven by safe-haven buying amid rising tensions in the Middle East. However, these gains have been capped by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

Price Levels and Resistance

Silver is trading at levels similar to those seen on January 9, prior to a significant breakout that saw prices surge to $121.67 by January 29. Analysts are skeptical about a repeat breakout due to shifting fundamentals towards a bearish outlook. For silver to rally, it must first overcome the 50-day MA at $81.24 and then the 50% retracement level at $83.61, before targeting higher resistance levels at $86.32 and $92.20.

Bearish Scenario

If silver fails to break above the 50-day MA, a bearish scenario could unfold. A drop below $71.98 would open the door to further declines, potentially reaching $64.06 or even $52.09. This bearish movement could be catalyzed by a negative PCE Index report or a strong rally in the U.S. Dollar, making silver less attractive to foreign investors.

Additionally, any easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran could eliminate the current "war premium," leading to a rapid decline back to $71.98, which is a critical support level.

Bullish Scenario

Conversely, if silver can break above the 50-day MA, it could trigger a bullish rally targeting the resistance zone between $92.87 and $99.66. Sustained buying pressure would be necessary to push through the key resistance levels at $86.32 and $92.20.

Market liquidity is currently thin due to the Asian New Year, which may lead to increased volatility, although there appears to be a bias towards upward movement among Asian traders.

Conclusion

The outlook for silver remains uncertain, with significant resistance at the 50-day MA and potential bearish catalysts on the horizon. Traders should closely monitor geopolitical developments and economic data releases that could influence market sentiment and price movements.