Market Quick Take - 10 March 2026
Market Drivers and Catalysts
- Equities: Wall Street rebounded while Europe faced pressure from oil prices. Asia saw a bounce as crude oil prices cooled.
- Volatility: The ongoing conflict in Iran is driving market volatility, with strong downside hedging.
- Digital Assets: Cryptocurrencies are rebounding, with Bitcoin surpassing $70,000.
- Fixed Income: US Treasury yields dropped due to lower oil prices, while high-yield bonds remain under pressure.
- Currencies: The USD weakened, and the JPY strengthened against the EUR as risk sentiment improved.
- Commodities: Crude oil fell below $100, but supply risks persist; gold is challenging the $5,200 resistance level.
Macro Events
President Donald Trump announced he would waive certain oil-related sanctions to help reduce prices, while the US Navy will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. He expressed optimism that the conflict with Iran would resolve soon amidst economic and political pressures.
Japan's Q4 2025 GDP was revised up to 1.3% annualized quarter-on-quarter, driven by stronger corporate investment. Meanwhile, China's export growth surged nearly 22% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, reaching an all-time high surplus of $214 billion.
Macro Calendar Highlights
- 0700 – Norway Feb. CPI
- 1000 – US Feb. NFIB Small Business Optimism
- 1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change
- 1400 – US Feb. Existing Home Sales
- 1700 – US Treasury to auction 3-year Notes
Earnings This Week
Today: Oracle, Volkswagen, Franco-Nevada, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli
Wednesday: Inditex, Rheinmetall, Porsche, Henkel
Thursday: Adobe, Wheaton Precious Metals, Assicurazioni Generali, BMW, RWE, Hannover Re, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, Lennar
Equities Overview
USA
The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4% as Wall Street rebounded following Trump's comments on the Iran conflict. Defensive sectors lagged, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Hims & Hers saw significant gains.
Europe
European markets struggled, with the STOXX 600 down 0.6% and the DAX losing 0.8% due to rising oil prices and inflation concerns.
Asia
Asian markets rebounded, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 2.9% and South Korea's Kospi climbing 5.4%, driven by easing tensions and a drop in oil prices.
Volatility Insights
Volatility remains high, primarily driven by the Iran conflict. The VIX closed at 25.50, indicating ongoing market uncertainty. Options pricing suggests continued swings, with a clear downside skew indicating demand for protection against potential market declines.
Digital Assets
Digital assets are experiencing a rebound, with Bitcoin above $70,000. Institutional interest in crypto investment products is growing, although caution remains in the market.
Fixed Income
US Treasury yields fell as oil prices retreated. High-yield corporate bonds, however, did not see similar support, with spreads widening.
Commodities
Oil prices saw a significant drop, with ongoing geopolitical tensions keeping the market volatile. Gold is approaching the upper end of its trading range, supported by a weaker dollar.
Currencies
The US dollar weakened as risk sentiment improved, with the EUR/USD pair reaching highs before retreating. Emerging market currencies also rebounded alongside the recovery in risk sentiment.