Market Summary - November 12, 2026
Oil Rebounds, EURUSD Falls Sharply
On November 12, 2026, Wall Street opened sharply lower, primarily due to a significant drop in Nvidia shares, which fell nearly 13% following the unexpected departure of CEO Jensen Huang amid recent scandals. Despite initial losses, major indices managed to recover briefly but ultimately closed slightly below the flatline. Nvidia shares later recovered some losses, trading down about 5% after approximately 4.5 hours post-market open. In contrast, oil prices saw a notable increase of nearly 3%.
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Data
Rising tensions in Iran were highlighted by reports of an explosion near Sirik, with speculation that warning shots were fired at vessels violating navigation rules. Former President Donald Trump stated that the US "doesn't need a deal with Iran," adding uncertainty to ongoing negotiations and potentially increasing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
The US dollar strengthened due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, contributing to a sharp decline in the EURUSD exchange rate, which fell to its lowest level since April 16, 2025. Labor market data showed initial jobless claims rising to 200,000, exceeding expectations, while continuing claims fell to 1.697 million, indicating a stable labor market.
Housing Market and Fed Commentary
US existing home sales dropped by 5.5% month-over-month in October, worse than the anticipated 3.5% decline. The annualized sales pace was reported at 3.75 million, below expectations of 3.85 million. Despite this, housing data has been largely overlooked by the markets recently.
Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about rising inflationary pressures. Mary Daly indicated that further policy tightening is likely, while Austan Goolsbee warned that the economy might be overheating. He noted that AI investments could act as an additional stimulus, although he refrained from making predictions about future rate decisions. Michael S. Barr highlighted that AI's impact is currently seen through higher prices and investment, with potential risks for the labor market and banks.
Market Reactions and Future Outlook
Fitch Ratings reported that US consumer spending remains robust despite affordability challenges, while Goldman Sachs projected US GDP growth at around 2.4% for 2027. The International Monetary Fund supported the Fed's focus on price stability and suggested that a restrictive monetary policy stance would be necessary to combat inflation.
In trade news, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer noted that China is only partially complying with trade agreements, although some rare earths are being received. The administration aims to keep strategic technologies, like Nvidia, within US and allied control, while all tariff options remain on the table.
Oil Inventory Reports and Commodity Market Trends
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant build in US fuel inventories, with crude stocks rising by 4.657 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a decline. Gasoline inventories also increased, indicating either stronger supply or weaker demand than anticipated, which is negative for the short-term oil market balance.
Precious metals faced heavy pressure, with gold and silver prices dropping around 3%. Broader commodity markets exhibited moderate volatility, with cocoa and coffee futures rebounding by approximately 2-3%.
Conclusion
Overall, the market is navigating through a complex landscape of geopolitical tensions, economic data, and Federal Reserve commentary, which are all influencing investor sentiment and market movements.