Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Signals Build Below Key Support
Published: February 25, 2026
Author: Bruce Powers
Overview
The article discusses the current state of natural gas prices, highlighting a bearish outlook as the commodity faces renewed downside pressure. After a recent attempt to rally, natural gas has encountered significant resistance, leading to concerns about further declines.
Near-Term Price Action and Resistance Test
Natural gas prices peaked at $2.95 but failed to maintain momentum, closing lower and indicating a potential bearish trend. The price has recently broken below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.90, which had previously served as a support zone. A close below this level on consecutive days would generate additional bearish signals.
Downside Targets and Support Zones
Should the bearish trend continue, natural gas could test the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.75. This level is significant as it coincides with a prior swing low at $2.74 from August, suggesting a critical support area. The failure to hold above the 10-day moving average further reinforces the bearish sentiment.
Pattern Structure and Expanding Volatility
The article notes the formation of a broadening pattern in natural gas prices, characterized by higher swing highs and lower swing lows. This pattern indicates increasing volatility and suggests that the price may challenge the lower swing low at $2.58 if the current trend persists.
Upside Reversal Conditions
For a bullish reversal to occur, natural gas prices would need to surpass Monday’s high of $3.15. However, an interim swing high at $3.19 must also be breached to confirm a reversal in the current bearish structure.
Weekly Close Signals to Watch
The conclusion of the week’s trading session is crucial, as a close below last week’s low of $2.87 would confirm a bearish outside week continuation pattern, further solidifying the negative outlook for natural gas prices.
Conclusion
Overall, the article presents a cautious outlook for natural gas, emphasizing the importance of key support levels and the potential for further declines if bearish signals continue to materialize. Traders are advised to monitor these levels closely for indications of market direction.