Gold Price Forecast: Will Venezuela Crisis Trigger Next Gold Rally?

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: January 4, 2026

Key Points

• The ongoing crisis in Venezuela introduces geopolitical uncertainty, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe haven.
• The upcoming December jobs report may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts in 2026, affecting gold prices.
• Despite a recent selloff triggered by margin hikes, the overall uptrend in gold prices remains intact, prompting investors to seek value entry points.

Gold Price Overview

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) experienced a significant decline last week, settling at $4,332.06, down $201.14 or -4.44%. This drop was primarily due to a change in futures margins rather than a fundamental shift in market conditions. The uptrend in gold prices remains, but investors are now more selective about their entry points.

Technical Analysis

The main trend for gold is upward. A trade above $4,550.15 would indicate a continuation of this uptrend. Conversely, a drop below $3,886.46 would signal a trend reversal. A key retracement zone exists between $4,218.30 and $4,139.99, where trader reactions will likely dictate the near-term market direction.

For long-term traders, a support cluster between $3,543.50 and $3,471.98 is highlighted, with the 52-week moving average serving as a critical long-term trend indicator.

Geopolitical Factors

The recent U.S. military action in Venezuela, including the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, has injected fresh uncertainty into the gold market. Traders will closely monitor developments in Venezuela, as the U.S. has indicated a desire to maintain stability in the region.

Focus on Employment Data

The upcoming December jobs report, scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is crucial. The Federal Reserve has indicated that a weakening labor market could lead to more interest rate cuts than previously anticipated, which would have significant implications for gold prices.

Market Outlook

In the short term, volatility is expected as traders react to the situation in Venezuela. The jobs data will also play a critical role in shaping market sentiment. For now, the focus remains on geopolitical developments and their potential impact on gold prices.

Conclusion

As the situation in Venezuela evolves, gold traders are likely to remain optimistic in the short term, awaiting further clarity on both geopolitical and economic fronts.