Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Holds Bullish Trend; Can Natural Gas Extend Above $3?
Published: July 23, 2026
Key Points
- U.S. crude inventories rose by 2 million barrels, but stocks remain well below the five-year seasonal average.
- Strong gasoline and jet fuel demand continues to support the oil market despite the surprise inventory build.
- WTI remains inside a bullish channel, with a sustained move above $88.61 opening the door toward $90.73.
- Brent continues consolidating near recent highs while buyers target the next major resistance around $99.17.
- Natural gas confirmed a breakout above range resistance, improving the outlook toward the $3.03 and $3.09 levels.
Oil Market Overview
Recent U.S. inventory data indicates a 2 million barrel increase in commercial crude oil inventory, bringing the total to 411.7 million barrels. Despite this increase, inventories remain 6% below the five-year seasonal average. U.S. refineries are operating at 96.1% capacity, processing 17.1 million barrels per day, while gasoline demand has risen to 8.9 million barrels per day, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase. Jet fuel demand has surged by 9% year-over-year.
Concerns over disruptions in Gulf crude oil flows have kept a risk premium in the market, with some analysts predicting a 1.5 million barrels per day deficit in 2026, although a surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day is expected in 2027.
Natural Gas Market Overview
The fundamentals for natural gas remain strong ahead of the latest EIA report. The working inventory level was reported at 2,922 Bcf for the week ending July 10. With increasing LNG export demand and stable power sector demand, the medium- to long-term outlook for U.S. natural gas appears positive.
Technical Analysis
Natural Gas
Natural gas has recently broken above the $2.95 resistance level, currently trading at $2.97. The next resistance levels are at $3.03, $3.09, and $3.15. The price is above the 50-EMA at $2.93, indicating bullish momentum, with the RSI at around 64 suggesting that bulls are in control.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI is trading in a bullish uptrend channel, currently at $88.16. The price is above the 50-EMA at $84.25, with the next resistance at $88.61. If breached, the price could target $90.73. Support levels are at $85.87, $83.13, and $81.07, with bullish sentiment indicated by an RSI around 66.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude is consolidating near highs at around $95.98, with resistance at $97.61 and a key level at $99.17. The price remains above the 50-EMA at $90.70, and the RSI indicates bullish control at around 69. Support levels are at $95.49, $92.93, and $90.62.
Conclusion
The oil and natural gas markets are currently experiencing bullish trends, supported by strong demand and favorable technical indicators. Traders should monitor key resistance and support levels as they navigate these markets.