Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis: Bullish Patterns Form as Tariffs Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Author: Muhammad Umair

Published: July 11, 2025

Key Points

• Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds from the support of the ascending triangle.
• Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates after breaking above the $35 level.
• US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds from long-term support near 96.50.

Market Overview

Gold prices are maintaining a positive bias as trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts continue to support demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold is trading above $3,300, indicating potential for positive momentum. The uncertainty surrounding President Trump's aggressive tariff policies is prompting investors to seek refuge in non-yielding assets like gold.

Recent FOMC minutes revealed limited support for an immediate rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar from strong support levels. Trump's new tariff threats, including a 50% duty on copper starting August 1, add layers of economic uncertainty, raising inflation concerns within the Federal Reserve. Despite this, most officials still anticipate rate cuts later in the year.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAU/USD Daily Chart – Ascending Triangle

The daily chart indicates that gold is consolidating within an ascending triangle, despite forming a bullish price pattern. The price is hovering around the 50-day SMA, and the RSI has dropped below 50, placing gold in a neutral zone. A recovery above $3,367 would signal a positive move towards $3,450, while a confirmed break above $3,450 would indicate a strong bullish breakout.

XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart – Uncertain Zone

The 4-hour chart shows that gold is consolidating in an uncertain zone. As long as the price remains above $3,200, the bullish structure is likely to hold. A break above $3,430 could push prices towards $3,500, with a breakout above $3,500 signaling a strong bullish trend.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAG/USD Daily Chart – Cup Pattern above $35

The daily chart for silver shows a bullish structure following a breakout above the $35 level. This breakout occurred after the formation of an Adam and Eve pattern, with positive price action reinforcing the bullish outlook. A rounding cup pattern above $35 strengthens upward momentum, with a break above $37 likely to push silver to higher levels.

XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Momentum

The 4-hour chart indicates that silver is consolidating above the $35 region, with bullish price action following corrections around $35.50. This suggests a likely breakout to the upside, with a break above $37 expected to propel prices higher.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Rebound

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows a rebound from the 96.50 level, approaching the 98 area. The index remains under bearish pressure, with resistance at the 50-day SMA near 98.90. As long as the index stays below 100.50, the downward trend is likely to continue.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart indicates that the index is nearing resistance within a descending channel. A break above 98 could lead to a move towards 99, while a break above 99 may push it towards 100.50. However, strong resistance at 100.50 suggests a potential resumption of the decline once the rebound is complete.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates a bullish outlook for both gold and silver, driven by ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainty. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and potential breakout points to capitalize on market movements.