Summary of Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Advances Toward Yearly Open
Author: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Date: February 18, 2026
Overview
The USD/CAD currency pair is currently experiencing an upward movement after stabilizing at long-term support levels. This rise is bringing the pair closer to a significant resistance point, which could dictate the next phase of the trend.
Technical Analysis
Key Resistance Levels: 1.3725/33, 1.38, 1.3889-1.3929
Key Support Levels: 1.3617, 1.3494, 1.3431
USD/CAD has rebounded from multi-year slope support and is approaching a critical pivot near the yearly open. The current price action is still within a broader downtrend, making the upcoming resistance test crucial. A breakout above this resistance could indicate a shift towards a broader recovery, while a rejection may reinforce the bearish trend.
Recent Price Movements
In the previous month, USD/CAD approached the 2025 swing lows, prompting traders to adjust their positions. The pair saw a rebound of over 1.8% from the yearly low but faced resistance at the 1.3725/33 level, which is significant due to its alignment with the yearly open and other technical retracement levels.
Outlook and Upcoming Data
The focus is now on a potential breakout in the coming weeks, with the 75% parallel converging on the resistance threshold. A weekly close above this level is necessary to suggest a more substantial recovery. Conversely, a close below 1.3617 could signal a return to the downtrend, targeting lower levels at 1.3494 and 1.3431.
Key US economic data, including the Core Consumer Price Index (PCE) and preliminary Q4 GDP, is set to be released soon. The GDP is expected to show a growth rate of 3%, which, if exceeded, could further strengthen the US dollar and impact the USD/CAD pair.
Conclusion
The USD/CAD pair is at a pivotal point, with resistance levels looming overhead. Traders should remain vigilant, especially with significant economic data on the horizon that could influence market dynamics.