Gold (XAU/USD) Breaches $5000/oz: Has the Bullish Trajectory Resumed?

Author: Zain Vawda

Date: 18 February 2026

Overview

Gold prices have recently surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark, challenging the prevailing belief among analysts that the previous rally was merely a "dead cat bounce." While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, the short-term perspective is characterized as neutral-to-bearish, with a critical resistance level identified at $5046.

Recent Price Movements

The resurgence of gold above the $5000 threshold has raised questions about its future trajectory. Analysts are particularly interested in whether gold can maintain this momentum or if it will face further indecision in the coming days.

Factors Influencing Gold Prices

The recent decline in gold prices was attributed to a strengthening US dollar and a shift towards risk-off sentiment in global markets. This volatility was exacerbated by thin liquidity conditions, as major Asian markets were closed for the Lunar New Year, making gold more susceptible to macroeconomic changes and currency fluctuations.

Despite these challenges, the decline appears to be a temporary correction rather than a long-term trend. As Asian markets reopen and liquidity normalizes, gold has found stronger support, driven by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and solid underlying fundamentals.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming US economic data, including housing statistics, comments from Federal Reserve officials, Q4 2025 GDP figures, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, are expected to influence gold prices. The current market sentiment, reflected in a fear and greed index score of 43, indicates that fear is prevalent, which typically supports gold as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold has resumed its long-term bullish trend, although significant challenges remain. The overall structure is bullish, but the shorter-term charts indicate a neutral-to-bearish bias as the market consolidates following a 15% drop from the $5,500 highs.

Key levels to watch include the range between $5096 and $4760. A breakout above the swing high at $5046 could signal further upside potential, while a decline would need to navigate support at $4908 before testing lower levels around $4860 and $4760.

Conclusion

Gold's recent performance and the factors influencing its price suggest a complex market environment. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments closely, as these will play a crucial role in determining gold's next moves.

Source: MarketPulse, OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc.