Oil Price News: Iraqi Supply Hits Crude Oil—Will War Risks Keep Dip Buyers Active?

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: March 18, 2026

Key Points

• Crude oil prices are declining as Iraqi supply returns, easing shortages but not altering the overall bullish outlook.
• U.S. inventory has risen by over 6 million barrels, indicating weaker demand or increased supply.
• Traders are maintaining a "buy-the-dip" strategy as crude oil futures hold significant pivot levels, reflecting underlying bullish sentiment.

Market Overview

Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures are experiencing a downturn, with prices dropping approximately $2 per barrel following a 3% increase in the previous session. The decline is attributed to an agreement between Iraq and Kurdish authorities to resume oil exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, alleviating immediate supply concerns.

Current Price Movements

As of 07:27 GMT, Brent crude is down about 2.2% to just above $101.00, while May WTI is off over 3% to around $93.00. Although this decline may suggest a potential market top, it is premature to declare a definitive turning point.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Despite the recent pullback, oil prices remain elevated, with Brent holding above $100.00 for several sessions. The current price levels appear to be influenced more by market fears than actual supply shortages. This week’s price action has occurred despite disruptions in oil flows at the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that geopolitical tensions continue to play a significant role in price determination.

Geopolitical Factors

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor in oil pricing, with Iraq’s southern oil production reportedly down by about 70% due to regional instability. Recent military actions, including U.S. targeting of Iranian positions, have further complicated the situation, with Iran rejecting calls for de-escalation.

API Inventory Report

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant increase of over 6 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles, exceeding expectations. This rise could indicate either weaker demand or increased supply, contributing to the current market weakness.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, May WTI crude oil futures remain in an uptrend. Prices have been fluctuating around a key pivot level of $94.53, which is crucial for determining the near-term market direction. A sustained move above this level could lead to a test of the 61.8% retracement level at $98.98, potentially triggering further upward momentum. Conversely, a drop below $94.53 could signal a decline towards the trend line at $86.20, where buyers may re-enter the market.

Conclusion

In summary, while the return of Iraqi oil supply has eased some immediate concerns, the broader market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand. Traders are likely to continue adopting a "buy-the-dip" strategy as long as these risks persist.