Market Analysis Summary - March 25, 2026

Macro Update

Equities Rebound on Ceasefire Hopes: Asian stocks saw a significant uptick, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising by 3% and regional markets gaining approximately 2%. S&P 500 futures also increased by 0.7% following reports of a US-led ceasefire proposal, which has positively influenced market sentiment.

Oil Drops on Easing Supply Fears: Brent crude oil prices fell by about 4-5%, approaching $100 a barrel, as the prospect of a ceasefire raised expectations for restored Gulf exports. Despite this drop, prices remain approximately 35% higher than before the conflict began.

Markets Remain Cautious: While equity futures showed gains, they were modest as investors remained wary of volatility driven by headlines and the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations.

Bond Yields Edge Lower: US Treasury yields slightly decreased, with 10-year yields hovering around 4.35%. Rate markets are still pricing in further tightening across Europe, the UK, Japan, and Australia, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Gold Rises as Dollar Softens: Gold prices increased by more than 2% due to a weakening US dollar and lower oil prices, which alleviated inflation concerns. Investors are also adjusting their expectations regarding potential additional rate hikes in the US.

Ongoing Supply Disruption and Risks: Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained, with Saudi exports being rerouted. Continued military activity and stress in private credit markets are contributing to a fragile overall risk sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is currently attempting to advance but must surpass its March 24 high of 24,171 to revisit the key resistance area between 24,289 and 24,465, which is expected to cap short-term gains. A drop below the March 24 low of 23,928 would bring the current March low of 23,760 into focus.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to push towards its March high of ¥159.90 and the psychological level of ¥160.00. The uptrend line from February to March at ¥158.37 may provide support, with the March 19 low at ¥157.51 also in consideration.

Brent Crude

Brent crude oil is trading above this week's low of $92.62, with a price gap remaining below at the March 11 high of $91.59. A rise above the March 24 high of $101.08 could lead to a revisit of the March 23 high at $110.29, with major resistance at $113.63 - $113.73. Further up, the June 2022 peak at $115.87 is also a target.

Outlook Summary

Nasdaq 100: Bearish while below the March 24 high of 24,465; medium-term bearish below the March 17 high of 24,884.

USD/JPY: Bullish while above the March 19 low of ¥157.51; medium-term neutral with a bullish bias above the March 5 low of ¥156.46.

Brent Crude: Bullish while above the March 23 low of $92.62; medium-term bullish above the March 10 low of $79.74.