Crude Oil Market Analysis: Rebound Towards USD 100

Author: Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy

Date: April 9, 2026

Key Points

• Ceasefire-driven sell-off is short-lived as Strait of Hormuz bottlenecks constrain supply, pushing WTI and Brent back towards USD 100.
• Dated Brent indicates ongoing physical tightness, trading above futures due to prompt scarcity.
• Even with a full reopening, months of disruption from logistics, storage, and repairs are expected.
• Any short-term price weakness will likely reflect speculative clean-out rather than a decline in bullish fundamentals.

Market Rebound Analysis

Crude prices have rebounded significantly after experiencing their largest one-day drop since April 2020. Brent crude is once again challenging resistance levels near USD 100. The initial sell-off was triggered by the announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which led to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium and long-liquidation from speculators. However, the market quickly shifted focus back to the reality of constrained supply through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains significantly limited.

Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck

Reports indicate that Iran is currently allowing only about a dozen vessels per day to transit the Strait, a drastic reduction from over 100 daily crossings prior to the conflict. This bottleneck has left many commercial vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf, with safety and insurance concerns deterring shipowners from sending in empty tankers for fresh cargoes. The market is not experiencing a full reopening but rather a controlled and inefficient flow of oil.

Positioning and Market Dynamics

The sharp sell-off following the ceasefire announcement can be attributed to market positioning rather than fundamental changes. Managed money traders held a significant long position in Brent futures, making the market vulnerable to rapid price movements once the headline risk eased. Future price movements will depend on whether further long liquidation occurs, with any renewed weakness likely reflecting speculative adjustments rather than a deterioration in market fundamentals.

Physical Market Tightness

The tightness in the oil market is evident in the behavior of Dated Brent, which settled at USD 124.5 per barrel, significantly higher than the June Brent futures. This divergence indicates that the issue is not long-term availability but rather immediate accessibility. Even if the Strait fully reopens, the oil market will face a prolonged adjustment period due to logistical challenges, damaged infrastructure, and storage constraints.

U.S. Inventory and Export Dynamics

In the U.S., commercial crude inventories have risen for seven consecutive weeks, reaching their highest levels since June 2023. This increase is likely due to temporary logistical disruptions rather than weak demand, as global buyers turn to the U.S. for supply amid Middle East disruptions. Analysts anticipate a record month for U.S. exports, driven by strong demand for refined products, despite declining gasoline and diesel inventories.

Conclusion

While the ceasefire has reduced immediate escalation risks, it has not resolved the underlying supply disruptions. The oil market is expected to remain tight, particularly in the prompt segment, as long as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted and infrastructure challenges persist. Prices may stabilize but are unlikely to return to normal levels soon, with the risk of prices rising further to balance demand and disrupted supply.