Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Market Analysis

Key Points

• Bitcoin (BTC) drops over 5% to around $64,600, reflecting a risk-off sentiment in the market.
• The US Supreme Court's decision to strike down parts of Trump's tariff framework has led to renewed trade policy concerns.
• Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to significantly impact Bitcoin's price, with expectations of substantial profit and revenue growth.

Market Overview

Bitcoin's price fell sharply at the start of the week, mirroring a broader decline in risk assets, including US futures. The cryptocurrency's decline is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

Following the US Supreme Court's ruling against parts of President Trump's emergency tariff framework, the former president quickly imposed a temporary universal tariff, initially set at 10% and later increased to 15%. This sudden shift has caused investors to adopt a risk-off approach, fearing that broad tariffs could hinder economic growth and increase inflation risks.

Geopolitical Tensions

In addition to trade policy concerns, geopolitical risks, particularly regarding US-Iran relations, are influencing market sentiment. The potential for escalation or de-escalation in tensions is being closely monitored, especially with ongoing nuclear talks in Geneva.

This geopolitical uncertainty has contributed to a cautious stance among investors, leading to a rally in safe-haven assets like gold.

Nvidia Earnings: A Key Catalyst

Nvidia's earnings report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is expected to be a significant catalyst for Bitcoin's price movement. The company is viewed as a bellwether for AI demand and capital expenditure expectations in the tech sector.

Market analysts are anticipating a year-over-year profit growth of approximately 71% and revenue growth of around 67%. A positive earnings report could boost investor confidence in the tech sector, potentially leading to a recovery in Bitcoin's price. Conversely, disappointing results could negatively impact Bitcoin and related assets.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin appears to be in a bear pennant formation, characterized by converging trendlines following a significant downward move. A breakdown below the lower trendline, accompanied by rising trading volumes, suggests a strong conviction among traders for further downside movement.

Analysts project a potential target of around $52,450 for Bitcoin, indicating a possible decline of 19% to 20% from current levels. This target aligns with Bitcoin's realized price, which reflects the average level at which traders have accumulated the cryptocurrency.