Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis Summary

Market Overview

Crude oil futures closed at $68.45, marking an increase of $1.88 or 2.82% for the day. Over the week, prices rose by $2.13, reflecting a 3.2% gain. This upward movement occurred despite an unexpected increase in OPEC+ production by 548,000 barrels. Midweek, OPEC+ hinted at a potential pause in output hikes, which provided some support to prices.

Inventory Report Impact

Contrary to the bullish sentiment, the EIA reported a surprise build of 7 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories. Typically, such a build would be considered bearish; however, the report also indicated drawdowns in gasoline and distillate stocks, which helped to create a more balanced market outlook. Additionally, geopolitical factors, including sanctions on Russia and upcoming statements from former President Trump, contributed to the market's upward momentum.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the recent price increase has pushed crude oil above the 200-day moving average (MA) at $68.35. Notably, in the previous three sessions, crude oil had traded above this level intraday but failed to close above it. The current closing price near the highs suggests a strong bullish signal, positioning oil to potentially maintain its position above the 200-day MA as the week concludes.

Conclusion

The combination of technical indicators and market sentiment suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for crude oil prices moving forward. The ability to close above the 200-day MA could indicate further bullish momentum in the coming sessions.