NFP Market Update - February 11, 2026
Key Highlights
The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is generating significant attention, particularly due to anticipated annual payroll revisions. Economists predict a substantial downward revision of approximately 825,000 jobs for the year 2025. This adjustment could considerably alter the perception of job growth in the United States.
Economic Implications
Such large revisions are typically associated with economic recessions. However, the current Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains robust, leading to speculation about the underlying causes of this potential job revision. Analysts are considering several factors, including:
- Early signs of economic trouble
- Productivity gains, possibly driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI)
- Reduced labor supply due to tighter immigration policies
Current Labor Market Indicators
Despite the expected weak payroll growth, the unemployment rate has only gradually increased and remains at a historically low level. This discrepancy suggests that the decline in job growth may be more influenced by immigration restrictions than by a decrease in overall labor demand.
For January, forecasts indicate:
- Payrolls are expected to increase by 65,000
- The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.4%
- Wage growth is anticipated to ease slightly to 3.7%
Live Updates
Join Kathleen for live updates on the NFP report at 13:25 GMT to gain further insights into the labor market and economic conditions.
Recent Market Developments
On February 9, 2026, the UK bond market faced renewed pressure as political dynamics continue to evolve, particularly with Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer, under scrutiny.