Forex Seasonality – March 2026: Geopolitical Concerns to Dwarf Seasonal Tendencies

Author: Matt Weller CFA, CMT, Head of Market Research

Date: March 2, 2026

Key Insights

• Geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran, are expected to overshadow typical FX seasonal trends in March.
• USD/JPY volatility is anticipated to be influenced more by daily news than by long-term trends or seasonal patterns.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) may experience a pullback in a risk-off environment, although traders are looking to buy dips.

Historical Context

The article discusses the historical seasonal patterns in the forex market since the Bretton Woods system ended in 1971. It emphasizes that while these patterns provide insights, they are not definitive and should be used alongside other analytical methods.

Currency Pair Analysis

EUR/USD

Historically, March has shown mixed results for EUR/USD, averaging a return of +0.0%. February was notably quiet, and geopolitical issues are likely to drive volatility this month.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has generally trended higher in March, with an average return of +0.2%. Traders are monitoring the key support level at 1.3340, which, if broken, could lead to further declines.

USD/JPY

March has been slightly bullish for USD/JPY, averaging +0.1%. However, recent trends suggest that current volatility is more influenced by immediate news rather than historical patterns.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has historically declined in March, averaging -0.1%. Despite this, recent bullish positioning suggests traders are optimistic, looking to buy dips around the mid-0.6900s.

USD/CAD

March has been a modestly negative month for USD/CAD, averaging -0.1%. Current trends indicate a focus on geopolitical developments rather than seasonal tendencies.

Conclusion

The article concludes by reiterating that while historical seasonal trends provide valuable insights, they should be complemented with an analysis of current market conditions and fundamentals for effective trading strategies.

Author's Note: For further insights, follow Matt Weller on Twitter: @MWellerFX.