Telegram’s GRAM Token Teases 40% Rally Despite Legal Pressures
By Yashu Gola | Updated: July 29, 2026
Key Insights
- GRAM is forming a falling wedge pattern, similar to the setup that led to its breakout in April 2026.
- A confirmed break above the resistance level of $1.48–$1.52 could lead to a price target of $2.03.
- A daily close below $1.30 would indicate a weakening bullish trend and expose support levels around $1.20–$1.25.
Technical Analysis
As of July 29, GRAM was trading at approximately $1.42, down nearly 3% for the day and about 50% below its peak of $2.75 in May. The token has been forming a falling wedge pattern, which typically indicates a potential reversal in price momentum. This pattern has historically signaled weakening bearish momentum, and a breakout above the upper trendline could lead to significant gains.
The daily relative strength index (RSI) for GRAM was around 38, indicating it is nearing oversold conditions. This suggests a possible interim dip towards the wedge's apex near the $1.30 level, despite the overall bullish outlook.
Historical Context
The current price action resembles the falling wedge that formed between October 2025 and April 2026, which culminated in a breakout that saw GRAM rise to $2.70–$2.80. For the current fractal to gain confirmation, GRAM must maintain its position above the $1.30–$1.38 range and break through the resistance at $1.48–$1.52. A further move above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) could expose higher targets around $1.78–$1.82, eventually aiming for $2.03, representing a potential 43% rebound from current levels.
Legal Pressures and Market Sentiment
The recent decline in GRAM's price is attributed to legal troubles faced by Telegram founder Pavel Durov, who has been charged by Russian authorities with allegedly facilitating terrorism, leading to an international arrest warrant. Historically, legal actions against Durov have negatively impacted the market perception of Telegram and its associated ecosystem, including Toncoin. The market reacted sharply to Durov's previous arrest in August 2024, resulting in an 85% decline in GRAM's value.
While the current sell-off has been less severe, it has brought GRAM closer to the falling wedge support that preceded the April breakout. For the bullish fractal to be validated, GRAM needs to reclaim the $1.50–$1.65 range with increased trading volume.