Market Analysis Summary - January 9, 2026

Overview

US stock futures experienced a decline in early trading as investors prepared for the upcoming US jobs report. Concurrently, positive economic indicators from Japan, particularly a significant increase in household spending, have raised expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Key Economic Indicators

• US Jobs Report: Anticipated to influence Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, with unemployment expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% and wage growth projected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year.
• Japanese Household Spending: Increased by 6.2% month-on-month in November, indicating a rebound from a previous decline and suggesting stronger economic momentum.
• 10-Year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Yields: Rose in response to the positive spending data, reflecting market expectations for BoJ rate hikes.

Market Reactions

The US futures market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and S&P 500 E-mini both declining, while the Dow Jones E-mini also saw a slight drop. The stronger USD/JPY exchange rate limited losses in US stock futures, as a rising yen typically supports risk assets.

Technical Analysis

Despite the morning losses, key indices remain above their 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating a bullish short- to medium-term outlook. Key resistance and support levels for major indices are as follows:

• Dow Jones: Resistance at 49,876 and 50,000; Support at 49,000 and 48,055 (50-day EMA).
• Nasdaq 100: Resistance at 26,000 and 26,399; Support at 25,391 (50-day EMA) and 24,500.
• S&P 500: Resistance at 7,007 and 7,500; Support at 6,848 (50-day EMA) and 6,500.

Outlook

The short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, driven by expectations of a potential Fed rate cut and strong corporate earnings. However, several factors could disrupt this positive sentiment, including:

• A hawkish stance from the BoJ that narrows the US-Japan interest rate differential.
• Strong US labor market data that could temper expectations for a Fed rate cut.
• Escalating geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

In summary, the combination of a resilient US economy, a dovish Fed policy, and positive corporate earnings prospects supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for US stock futures. Traders are advised to monitor key economic indicators, particularly the US jobs report and Japanese economic data, as these will significantly influence market sentiment and trading strategies.