Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Ceasefire Hopes vs. Fed Hawks – Gold at Risk?
Published: March 25, 2026, 10:49 GMT+00:00
Key Points
- Gold holds the $4,544 level at the 0.382 retracement, coiling for a potential move toward $4,677.
- A 15-point truce plan via Pakistani middlemen offers brief hope, temporarily cooling safe-haven demand.
- XAG/USD faces heavy resistance at $74.19, stuck below the 200-period moving average at $77.61.
Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading just below $4,570, having seen a high-water mark of $4,602 as the market copes with the unpredictable mix of geopolitical hotspots and expectations that monetary policy might be about to shift.
Key Market Drivers
Safe-Haven Appeal Holds
Gold remains a solid investment despite a recent dip from a high of $5,400. Ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have led many to believe that gold may see another upward movement.
Ceasefire Hopes
Recent news of a 15-point truce plan proposed by the US through Pakistani intermediaries has provided temporary relief, reducing immediate safe-haven demand. However, skepticism remains regarding Iran's military response to these developments.
Dollar and Fed Create Headwinds
The strength of the US dollar and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are creating headwinds for gold prices. Additionally, oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel are contributing to inflation concerns, which complicates the outlook for gold.
Gold Prices Forecast
Gold is currently testing the $4,544 level, which is just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The price has bounced back from the $4,378 zone, which corresponds to the 0.236 retracement level. The market is currently facing resistance from the 50-period moving average and a descending channel.
Key levels to watch include:
- Resistance at $4,677 (0.5 Fibonacci level) and $4,811 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
- Support at $4,378 and $4,111.
A break above $4,677 could lead to a rally towards $4,811, while a rejection below $4,544 may push prices back down to $4,378.
Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast
Silver is currently trading around $72.65, facing resistance at $74.19. The market is below the 200-period moving average at $77.61, indicating a bearish sentiment. Key levels include:
- Immediate resistance at $74.19.
- Support levels at $68.15 and $64.26.
A decisive move above $74.19 could signal a shift in trend, while a rejection may lead to a decline towards $68.15.
Trade Ideas
For gold, consider buying above $4,677 targeting $4,811, with a stop loss set below $4,544. For silver, consider selling below $74.19 targeting $68.15, with a stop loss above $75.00.
About the Author
Arslan Ali is a finance MBA and holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. He specializes in financial analysis and investor psychology, providing insights into market sentiment and potential overbought or oversold conditions.