Overview
On July 5, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight increase of 0.19%, recovering from a previous loss of 1.42%. The cryptocurrency closed at $108,303, still below its all-time high of $111,917. The market is currently influenced by various factors, including trade negotiations and Federal Reserve (Fed) policies.
Trade War Concerns
President Trump's impending trade deadline on July 9 poses a significant risk to Bitcoin's price. If trade agreements are not reached, tariffs of 50% and 35% could be imposed on the EU and Japan, respectively, while China may also face increased levies. These tariffs could lead to higher import prices in the U.S., potentially driving inflation and impacting Bitcoin's value.
Historically, trade developments have had a direct effect on Bitcoin's price, with notable fluctuations observed in 2025 due to tariff announcements.
ETF Inflows and Market Sentiment
Despite the trade uncertainties, Bitcoin's market remains supported by significant inflows into U.S. Bitcoin-spot ETFs. Recent reports indicated net inflows of $769.5 million, which helped bolster demand for Bitcoin amidst a positive U.S. Jobs Report that alleviated recession fears.
Price Outlook
The near-term outlook for Bitcoin is shaped by several key factors:
- Trade developments and negotiations
- Legislative updates, particularly regarding cryptocurrency regulations
- Upcoming U.S. economic data and Fed monetary policy signals
- Trends in U.S. Bitcoin-spot ETF flows
Two potential scenarios for Bitcoin's price are outlined:
- Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, dovish Fed signals, and positive economic data could push Bitcoin towards its all-time high of $111,917.
- Bearish Scenario: Renewed trade tensions, hawkish Fed rhetoric, or legislative setbacks could see Bitcoin drop towards $100,000.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating bullish momentum. A breakout above the recent high of $110,583 could lead to a test of the all-time high. Conversely, a drop below $105,000 may trigger further selling pressure.
Ethereum's Performance
Ethereum (ETH) is also showing bullish signals, trading above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. A breakout above the recent high of $2,636 could lead to a retest of the June high of $2,879.