Nikkei, ASX 200, Gold: TACO Hopes Power Asia Bounce, Downside Asymmetry Builds

Author: David Scutt, Market Analyst

Date: April 12, 2026

Market Overview

The Nikkei 225, ASX 200, and gold have begun to recover from early losses attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran war. This recovery is driven by hopes surrounding TACO (Tactical Action for Ceasefire Operations) expectations, although there is a growing concern about potential downside risks if these hopes are not realized.

Geopolitical Context

Recent developments include the collapse of peace talks between the US and Iran, leading to threats of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by former President Donald Trump. This situation initially caused a spike in crude oil prices and a strengthening of the US dollar, putting pressure on risk assets. However, the blockade is not set to commence until a specified deadline, allowing for potential market reversals.

Technical Analysis

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 has shown a clear technical range, bouncing from a support level of 55775. The resistance level is identified at 57250. A further deterioration in geopolitical conditions could see a break below 55775, targeting 54250. Conversely, a bullish momentum could push the index towards 57700.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 has demonstrated resilience at the 8900 level, which has previously acted as a support barrier. A break below this level could lead to a focus on the 8600 mark. If the index maintains above 8900, traders should watch for a potential breakout above 9050, which could lead to a retest of the record high at 9226.

Gold

Gold has experienced a significant rebound after dipping below $4650. The $4700 level is crucial as it has acted as both support and resistance. Should the price continue to rise, resistance is expected around $4800, while a failure to maintain above $4550 could lead to further declines.

Conclusion

While the Asian markets are currently buoyed by TACO hopes, the potential for downside risks remains significant if these expectations are not met. Traders should remain vigilant and closely monitor geopolitical developments and technical levels in the Nikkei 225, ASX 200, and gold markets.