Gold and Silver Price Forecast: $5,000 Clash as Dollar Firms

Published: February 18, 2026

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) has rebounded by 1.16% to above $4,935 after experiencing a sharp 2% drop due to easing geopolitical tensions. Silver (XAG/USD) has also gained 2.79%, trading at $75.58, although thin trading volumes during the Lunar New Year have limited volatility. The US Dollar Index is at 97.24, which is capping gold's upside as fading expectations for rate cuts bolster the dollar.

Gold Price Dynamics

Gold's recovery is somewhat puzzling given the backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger U.S. dollar. The yellow metal had previously dropped over 2% due to positive developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, which have diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold. The U.S. dollar's strength, reflected in a 0.12% gain in the Dollar Index, is attributed to waning expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis

Gold is currently caught between a downtrend line from around $5,300 and a support line rising from approximately $4,860. The price is holding above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $4,859 but struggles to break above the $5,000 resistance. The 50-period moving average is around $5,000, while the 200-period average is at $4,860, creating a strong support cluster. A breakout above $5,000 could lead to a target of $5,141, while a drop below $4,860 could see prices fall to $4,685.

Silver Price Outlook

Silver is currently trading around $75.86 after bouncing off a significant support line at $72. However, it faces pressure from a descending trendline that dates back to its $100 high. The 50-period moving average is at $79.20, and the 200-period average is at $86.10, indicating a solid resistance wall. If silver breaks above $79.20, it could target $86.11, but a drop below $72.00 could lead to further declines to $70.37 and $64.14.

Conclusion

Investors are advised to monitor key levels for both gold and silver. For gold, a buy signal may be triggered above $5,000, while for silver, a buy signal could emerge above $79.20. However, caution is warranted, as both metals face significant resistance and potential downside risks.

Author Information

Arslan Ali is a finance MBA and holds an MPhil in behavioral finance. He specializes in financial analysis and investor psychology, providing insights into market sentiment and asset valuation.