Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Reversal Signals Breakout

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: February 20, 2026

Overview

Natural gas futures have recently shown signs of a bullish reversal, reclaiming key support and resistance levels. This movement suggests a potential breakout towards higher swing highs and Fibonacci retracement targets.

Technical Analysis

On Friday, natural gas futures reached a four-day high of $3.08, indicating a bullish reversal. A daily close above Thursday’s high of $3.01 is necessary to confirm a two-day breakout, while a close above $3.06 would confirm a three-day breakout. The 10-day moving average at $3.04 is identified as a critical resistance level that needs to be reclaimed for further upward movement.

Support Levels

Support has been holding near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.91. A new low of $2.87 was established on Wednesday, which successfully tested the support at the neckline of a small double bottom pattern formed in January. This suggests that the bearish correction may be complete, and an upside trigger could indicate that buyers are regaining control.

Resistance and Upside Targets

The interim lower swing high at $3.19 is crucial for triggering a bullish reversal. If surpassed, initial upside targets will be set at the next lower swing high of $3.45, which has previously acted as both support and resistance. Additionally, the 200-day moving average at $3.62 is another potential resistance area that traders should monitor.

Long-Term Potential

Natural gas has been tracing a large broadening formation. A sustained bullish reversal from current lows could lead to a rally towards the top boundary of this formation. Even if the upper swing high at $4.09 is not reached, upward pressure could facilitate a move towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.50.

Conclusion

The current technical indicators suggest that natural gas futures are poised for a potential breakout, with key resistance levels to watch. Traders should remain vigilant for confirmation of breakouts and consider the implications of Fibonacci retracement levels in their strategies.