Crypto Market Analysis - February 16, 2026
Current Market Overview
Cryptocurrencies are attempting to stabilize following a significant sell-off, with Bitcoin trading between $65,000 and $70,000. This marks the fourth consecutive week of losses for Bitcoin, which has struggled to maintain a price above $70,000 due to a lack of strong demand.
Market Sentiment and Demand
Michael Saylor has expressed confidence in the resilience of his company amidst a potential prolonged bear market, although corporate demand for Bitcoin appears to be declining. Notably, 97.5% of Bitcoin purchases in January were attributed to MicroStrategy (MSTR.US).
On-chain data indicates limited inflows into Bitcoin and a slowdown in futures and options activity, with a prevailing demand for downside hedging. The $60,000 price level is identified as a critical support zone, and a breach below this level could lead to significant long liquidations.
Institutional Moves
Harvard University's associated fund has reduced its Bitcoin exposure by 21% while increasing its Ethereum holdings to $87 million. Analyst Mike McGlone has suggested that Bitcoin could potentially drop to $10,000 due to a "narrative crisis" and a shift in market sentiment, particularly as Bitcoin has failed to track gold's performance and has underperformed compared to equity indices.
Liquidation Dynamics
A 10% increase in Bitcoin could trigger approximately $4.34 billion in short liquidations, while a 10% decrease could lead to around $2.35 billion in long liquidations. This highlights the volatility and risk present in the current market environment.
On-Chain Analysis
According to CryptoQuant, the current on-chain indicators suggest that $60,000 is not the bottom of the bear market. The "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is estimated to be around $55,000. Key indicators are still in a Bear Phase, indicating that while the market is under pressure, it has not yet reached the extreme capitulation levels typically seen at cycle lows.
The Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) for Bitcoin has fallen to the 0.92–0.94 range, suggesting that Bitcoin is being sold at an average loss of 6–8%. This level is historically associated with significant stress in bear markets, indicating that weaker hands are capitulating.
Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, both Bitcoin and Ethereum face a heightened risk of further downside, reminiscent of the 2022 bear market. However, a recovery above $80,000 could signal a V-shaped rebound, improving market conditions and reducing the risk of a prolonged bear phase.
ETF Activity
Recent ETF flow data indicates that U.S. funds are contributing to a broader slowdown in the market, with limited buying activity and a predominance of sales.