Euro Technical Forecast Summary
Author: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Date: February 21, 2026
Overview
The Euro (EUR/USD) is currently testing a critical support zone after experiencing a significant pullback, which has raised concerns about a potential breakdown that could end its three-month upward trend. The market is at a pivotal point, with key levels defining the next possible moves.
Current Market Situation
EUR/USD has seen a decline of over 2.8% from its January high, returning to a crucial support area that includes the yearly open and recent range lows. The ongoing monthly divergence indicates a weakening upside momentum, suggesting that a broader corrective phase may be imminent if this support level fails to hold.
Key Levels
Resistance: 1.1917/18, 1.2020 (key), 1.2218
Support: 1.1746/75 (key), 1.1598, 1.1518, 1.1497
Technical Analysis
The recent price action has slowed near a significant support band, which has historically acted as a structural inflection point. The upcoming price movements around this threshold will be crucial in determining whether the market stabilizes or continues to decline. A confirmed breakdown below this support could indicate a significant shift in market sentiment, while maintaining above it could preserve a longer-term bullish outlook.
Outlook
As the month closes, the focus will be on the breakout of the defined monthly opening range (1.1746-1.1918) for directional guidance. A larger pullback may present more favorable trading opportunities closer to the uptrend support, while a breach above the resistance range is necessary to initiate the next leg of the advance.
Upcoming Economic Events
The economic calendar for the upcoming week is relatively light, with notable events including President Trump’s State of the Union address and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Additionally, several Federal Reserve speakers will provide commentary that could influence interest rate expectations, especially following recent economic data releases.
Conclusion
The Euro is at a critical juncture, poised to either maintain its upward trajectory or enter a corrective phase. Traders should remain vigilant and monitor the key support and resistance levels as well as upcoming economic events that could impact market dynamics.