XRP News Summary: Jobless Claims and Market Dynamics

Author: Bob Mason

Published: February 20, 2026

Key Highlights

• US jobless claims data reduces the likelihood of a June Federal Reserve rate cut, impacting XRP and crypto ETF demand.
• XRP's price dropped from $1.4452 to $1.3820 due to hawkish Fed Minutes and cooling rate cut expectations.
• Current trading positions indicate XRP is below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, suggesting ongoing selling pressure.

Market Overview

Recent US labor market data has shown resilience, with initial jobless claims falling from 229,000 to 206,000. This has tempered expectations for a June Fed rate cut, which has negatively affected risk assets, including XRP. The probability of a rate cut has decreased from 62.3% to 58.5% as of February 20, 2026.

XRP Price Dynamics

XRP has experienced a three-session losing streak, with a notable decline attributed to the strong jobless claims data and hawkish Fed Minutes. The price reaction saw XRP fall to a session low of $1.3820. Additionally, institutional demand for crypto-spot ETFs has weakened, contributing to negative sentiment around XRP.

ETF Market Impact

Recent outflows from the US BTC-spot ETF market, totaling $238.2 million, have compounded the bearish sentiment, with XRP-spot ETFs also reporting $2.21 million in outflows this week. Despite this, XRP-spot ETFs have seen net inflows of $60.08 million year-to-date.

Price Forecasts

XRP's short-term outlook remains cautiously bearish, with a target price of $1.0. However, medium-term projections (4-8 weeks) suggest a potential rise to $2.5, and longer-term (8-12 weeks) targets could reach $3.0, contingent on several factors:

• Passing of the Market Structure Bill by the US Senate.
• Increased utility and demand for XRP.
• Geopolitical stability and favorable economic indicators.

Technical Analysis

XRP's recent performance indicates a bearish trend, with key support levels at $1.0 and $0.7773. Resistance levels are identified at $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0. A break above $1.5 could signal a bullish trend reversal, while a sustained drop below $1.0 would reinforce the bearish outlook.

Conclusion

Looking ahead, XRP's price will be influenced by various factors, including US economic data, Fed policy, ETF flows, and geopolitical developments. A dovish Fed stance and positive legislative outcomes could support a bullish medium- to long-term outlook for XRP.