Summary of Key Economic Events - February 23, 2026

Overview of Global Economic Data

Last week, a diverse set of global economic data was released, revealing significant divergences among major economies. In the United States, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated ongoing concerns regarding inflation, suggesting potential interest rate hikes if inflation remains high. This was accompanied by a slowdown in GDP growth and an increase in core personal consumption expenditures, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures despite some signs of weakness in activity and consumption metrics. The labor market, however, showed resilience with a decrease in jobless claims and a significant reduction in crude oil inventories.

In the euro area, purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) showed relative improvement, particularly in manufacturing, despite a contraction in industrial production. The United Kingdom presented a mixed economic picture, with rising unemployment and slower wage growth countered by a strong rebound in retail sales, resilient PMIs, and a budget surplus recorded in January. Switzerland's economy showed modest improvement with GDP returning to growth, while Canada experienced further easing in inflation, leading to expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy. Australia’s labor market remained solid despite a slight slowdown in employment growth, and Japan indicated gradual improvement in economic activity and exports, although growth and inflation remained subdued, reflecting a fragile recovery.

Market Analysis

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair saw a decline from a high of 1.3869 on January 27, 2026, to 1.3434 on February 19, closing at 1.3471. Recent UK economic data showed weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.2% and wage growth slowing to 4.2%. However, retail sales improved, and PMIs remained resilient. The RSI indicates negative momentum, and a bearish MACD crossover suggests continued downside potential.

NVIDIA

NVIDIA shares have increased by approximately 2% year-to-date, with earnings expected to be released on February 25, 2026. Consensus estimates predict earnings of USD 1.51 per share and revenue of USD 65.41 billion. The MACD shows a bullish crossover, indicating positive momentum, while the RSI is around 55.

Oil

Crude oil prices rose about 6% last week, reaching USD 72.34 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and concerns over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US crude oil inventories fell significantly, indicating strong demand. The RSI reflects bullish momentum, and the MACD shows a bullish crossover.

CAC 40 Index

The French CAC 40 index reached a record high of 8,529 points, driven by solid earnings from French companies and expectations of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The index has risen about 6% since January 28, 2026. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, while a bullish MACD crossover supports continued positive momentum.

Key Events This Week

• Monday: US factory orders data
• Tuesday: China’s benchmark lending rate and US consumer confidence
• Wednesday: CPI data from Australia and the euro area, along with US crude oil inventory figures
• Thursday: Euro area consumer confidence and US initial jobless claims
• Friday: Tokyo CPI data, GDP figures from Switzerland and Canada, and US producer price inflation