USDJPY, USDCAD Price Forecast: Hormuz Deadline and US CPI Risks
Author: Razan Hilal, CMT
Date: April 7, 2026
Market Overview
The article discusses the current market sentiment influenced by geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The US Dollar pairs, commodities, and equities are particularly sensitive to these developments.
Key Scenarios
- Crude oil prices are nearing the $100 mark, contributing to global inflationary pressures.
- The US CPI release on Friday is anticipated to reflect the impact of energy supply disruptions.
- Potential bullish breakout risks are noted for both crude oil and the US Dollar Index (DXY).
US CPI Release
The upcoming US CPI report is a significant event risk. Expectations are bullish due to severe energy supply disruptions, particularly from strikes affecting key facilities and blockages in supply routes. If de-escalation occurs, the CPI reading may be less impactful, while continued disruptions could lead to further increases in dollar pairs.
Technical Analysis
DXY (US Dollar Index)
A close above 100.60 could lead to increased downside pressure on other currencies and precious metals, while a drop below 98 may support rebounds in FX and metals.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices holding above 118 could extend risks towards the 130-150 range, intensifying global economic pressures. Conversely, a drop below 88 would indicate initial easing.
USDCAD Price Forecast
USDCAD is currently in a corrective phase, trading below the 1.40 threshold. Key scenarios include:
- Bullish Scenario: A close above 1.3950 could target resistance levels at 1.4070 and 1.4150.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below 1.3850 could expose support levels at 1.3690 and 1.35.
USDJPY Price Forecast
The USDJPY chart shows a bullish bias. Key scenarios include:
- Bullish Scenario: A close above 160 could extend forecasts towards 160.80, 162, and 164.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below 158 could lead to drawdowns towards 156.20 and lower.
Conclusion
The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and economic indicators, particularly the US CPI, as they will significantly influence market dynamics in the coming days.